The Base Rate Blindspot: Why You Keep Ignoring the Most Useful Number in the Room
Base rates tell you what usually happens before your situation adds any complexity. Here's why smart people systematically ignore them and how to stop.
M. Linden Topic
probability
3 posts tagged probability from Confronting Unknowns.
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The Reference Class Problem: Why You're Comparing Your Situation to the Wrong Precedents
When you estimate odds by drawing on past examples, choosing the wrong comparison group can be more dangerous than having no data at all.
M. LindenBayesian Thinking for Non-Statisticians: How to Update Beliefs Without Losing Your Mind
Bayesian reasoning is one of the most useful tools for making decisions under uncertainty, and you don't need a statistics degree to use it.
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