Topic

expertise

2 posts tagged expertise from Confronting Unknowns.

decision-making cognitive bias risk analysis

The Overfitting Problem: Why Your Hard-Won Experience Can Become a Liability

Learn how cognitive overfitting causes experts to over-apply lessons from past situations to new ones, and how to avoid this hidden decision-making trap.

M. Linden

· June 4, 2026 · 4 min read

Klein's Recognition-Primed Decision Model and Why Experts Don't Deliberate

Gary Klein's research on naturalistic decision-making upended the classical model of rational choice. Experts don't weigh options. They recognize patterns and act.

M. Linden

· March 11, 2025 · 3 min read

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decision-making risk-analysis cognitive-bias uncertainty complexity cognitive biases probability sensemaking systems thinking antifragility black-swan Cynefin

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