Topic

cognitive biases

3 posts tagged cognitive biases from Confronting Unknowns.

decision-making uncertainty cognitive biases

The Dead Reckoning Problem: How to Make Good Decisions Without a Fixed Reference Point

Dead reckoning reveals how skilled navigators make confident decisions without GPS. Here's what that means for decisions made in uncertain, shifting conditions.

M. Linden

· June 11, 2026 · 4 min read

Negative Space Thinking: What the Absence of Information Tells You

Learn how to read missing data, silent signals, and conspicuous gaps as decision-making inputs, not just noise to ignore.

M. Linden

· May 4, 2026 · 5 min read

decision-making cognitive biases

Bayesian Thinking for Non-Statisticians: How to Update Beliefs Without Losing Your Mind

Bayesian reasoning is one of the most useful tools for making decisions under uncertainty, and you don't need a statistics degree to use it.

M. Linden

· May 1, 2026 · 4 min read

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decision-making risk-analysis cognitive-bias uncertainty complexity probability expertise sensemaking systems thinking antifragility black-swan Cynefin

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