The Base Rate Blindspot: Why You Keep Ignoring the Most Useful Number in the Room
Base rates tell you what usually happens before your situation adds any complexity. Here's why smart people systematically ignore them and how to stop.
M. Linden9 posts tagged cognitive-bias from Confronting Unknowns.
Learn how cognitive overfitting causes experts to over-apply lessons from past situations to new ones, and how to avoid this hidden decision-making trap.
M. LindenEscalation of commitment goes beyond sunk cost bias. Learn how organizations trap themselves in failing courses of action and how to break the cycle.
M. LindenMost decisions aren't as permanent as they feel. Learn how misclassifying reversible choices as irreversible leads to costly delays and analysis paralysis.
M. LindenThe instinct to impose control during uncertainty often backfires. Here's why loosening your grip leads to better decisions.
M. LindenWhen you estimate odds by drawing on past examples, choosing the wrong comparison group can be more dangerous than having no data at all.
M. LindenDiscover why we consistently underestimate project timelines and learn evidence-based techniques to make more accurate predictions.
M. LindenHow cognitive overconfidence creates blind spots in leadership decisions and practical strategies to counter this bias.
M. LindenHow predictive processing breaks down when facing genuinely new situations and what this means for decision-making.
M. Linden